Are People Still Moving to Florida? The 2026 Migration Numbers, Explained

You've seen the headlines: the Florida boom is over, everyone's leaving, the U-Hauls are pointed north. And if you own a home here, or you're deciding whether to buy one, you deserve a straight answer instead of a headline.

So here it is: yes, people are still moving to Florida. Just far fewer, and to very different places than five years ago. Both halves of that sentence matter for your home's value.

What the new numbers actually say

Fresh University of Florida research, published this month, puts it plainly. In 2025, Florida gained about 201,000 residents through migration, roughly 551 new arrivals a day. At the 2022 peak, it was nearly 599,000, about 1,640 a day.

That's a two-thirds drop from the peak. It is not an exodus. The state is still growing, still adding a mid-sized city's worth of people every year. Florida's migration is cooling, not reversing, and even Florida Realtors' own economists describe it exactly that way.

Why the slowdown? Cost, mostly. Home prices ran up 50%+ during the boom, insurance premiums spiked, and the affordability gap between Florida and the states people move from narrowed. The bargain got less compelling, so fewer people took it.

The part nobody's talking about: where Floridians are going

The more interesting story is inside the state. Miami-Dade lost nearly 73,000 residents to domestic outmigration, the biggest loss in Florida. Broward, Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas also posted net losses.

Meanwhile Polk, Pasco, and Marion counties are booming. Polk has ranked among the top five U.S. counties for domestic in-migration five years running. And here's the kicker: about 59% of newcomers to Polk and Pasco came from elsewhere in Florida, not from other states.

Floridians aren't leaving Florida. They're leaving expensive Florida for affordable Florida. The demand didn't vanish; it relocated.

What this means if you're selling

Pricing power now depends on which Florida you're in. In high-cost metros losing residents, buyers have options and time. Price at the market, not at your 2022 memory of it, and expect to negotiate.

In affordable, growing markets, and in job-anchored metros like Jacksonville that never overheated the way Southwest Florida did, demand has a floor under it. Homes priced right are still moving. The sellers struggling everywhere are the ones pricing for a migration wave that crested three years ago.

What this means if you're buying

Slower migration is the single biggest reason 2026 is a buyer's market. Less competition, more price cuts, sellers who'll talk. If you're relocating to Florida, you're arriving with leverage the 2021 crowd would have paid dearly for.

One more timing note: the property tax amendment on this November's ballot would give full benefits to residents established before January 2027, while later arrivals wait five years for the full exemption. If Florida is in your plans anyway, the math favors sooner.

The bottom line

Florida's growth story isn't over. It's maturing, and it's redistributing toward places where the monthly numbers still work. The winners in this next chapter are buyers who negotiate like it's 2026 and sellers who price like it too.

Relocating to Florida, or repositioning within it? I help buyers and sellers read their local market, not the state headline. Contact me for a free Northeast Florida market guide and let's figure out your smartest move.